The Gambler’s Fallacy: Are My Lucky Moments Connected? [#FallacyFridays]
Welcome to #FallacyFridays! On Fridays, we take a look at the flaws in our logic that could happen if we are not careful. But no matter what day of the week, any day is a good day to sharpen our critical thinking skills. The logical fallacy that we will be looking at today is called the gambler’s fallacy.
Before we get into it, I want you to know about a tool that may help you understand this and other fallacies. I know that some people learn better by writing or typing. If that is you, download this FREE digital copy of “#FallacyFridays: The Workbook.” It was designed to follow alongside #FallacyFridays lessons in order for you to better understand logical fallacies.
What is the Gambler’s Fallacy?
To illustrate how the gambler’s fallacy works, let’s throw it back to one of the most basic games: heads or tails. One side of the coin is designated “head” and the other, “tails.” Someone flips the coin, and you guess if the coin will land on “heads” or “tails.” Since there are only two options, your odds of calling the correct side are 50-50.
Now let’s say you notice that you’ve guessed correctly for 5 guesses in a row. You might start to think, Man, these correct guesses mean that I will likely get it wrong on the next coin toss. Or you might actually be thinking the opposite, that your 5-streak win means that it will keep going.
In either situation, you’re committing the gambler’s fallacy.
The gambler’s fallacy occurs when you claim that the frequency of past events can affect the outcome of future events when, in reality, those past events are independent of the future event.
(In this coin toss scenario, each coin flip would be considered an event.)
What makes the gambler’s fallacy fallacious?
If we consider our coin toss game of “Heads or Tails,” no matter how many times you guess correctly (or incorrectly), each coin toss gives you a 50% chance of guessing correctly. Even if you guess 300 times in a row correctly, it has no bearing on whether or not you will guess correctly the 301st time. Each coin toss will always be a 50-50 shot.
The gambler's fallacy is a flawed way of reasoning because it assumes a connection between two or more events when that connection does not actually exist. Click To TweetWhy are we prone to making the gambler’s fallacy?
Humans are pattern-seeking beings. It has been advantageous for us in many ways. For example, during the more agrarian portion of human history, it was helpful to be observant of seasons and how the soil behaved during different times of the year. It helped us know when to plant and when to harvest our food. Observing weather patterns has also helped us know when to sail and when to expect rain.
But sometimes, our pattern-seeking brain has a cognitive hiccup. We create connections where none exist due to the patterns we may perceive. This flaw in cognition is called apophenia.
Apophenia often shows up in gambling and when we place bets. For example, one may notice a tendency to win when picking an odd numbered card from a shuffled deck of cards. But no matter what pattern we perceive, the odds of winning will always be the desired event out of the total number possibilities. It is a game of probability, not a game of patterns. We may enjoy the comfort that comes with feeling like we are in control when we “discover a pattern.” But a lot of the time, it’s simply just a game of chance.
Creating patterns or connections where none exist is called apophenia. This cognitive hiccup can make us commit the gambler's fallacy. Click To TweetWhen are events dependent on each other?
Now there are times where past events are dependent on future events. You might remember this happening in your homework assignment in grade school that was about probability. It asked you to figure out the probability of picking a certain colored marble out of a jar followed by picking another marble of the same color without replacement. The problem would go something like this:
Mary has 10 marbles in a jar: 7 yellow and 3 green. What is the probability of her picking two yellow marbles without replacement?
In the first draw, Mary would have a 7 out of 10 chance of picking the first yellow marble. In the second draw, since the yellow marble won’t be replaced, we now have 9 total marbles and the number of yellow marbles has gone down to 6. So the odds of picking a yellow marble is now 6 out of 9. Those two draws are dependent on each other.
Any events with causal links can impact the odds of a later event happening. The keyword here is causal. Imagined links between events don’t count. 🙃
Quiz time!
Now that you know how the gambler’s fallacy works, here is a quiz to test your understanding. Which of the answer choices contains the gambler’s fallacy?
A. “Tina had two girls and she is pregnant again. Since she’s had two girls already, the next one’s gotta be a boy.”
B. “My past 3 relationships have given me perspective on what not to tolerate. I’ll do my best to implement what I’ve learned in my next relationship.”
C. “Pink is my favorite color. I have 3 pink shoes, so don’t be surprised if the next one I buy is pink.”
D. “If you keep eating more and more fried chicken, chances are your heart health will go down.”
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