Welcome to #FallacyFridays! Every Friday, we take the time to learn about logical fallacies (aka flaws in our reasoning). But no matter when you read it, it’s a good day to learn. Today’s logical fallacy is the appeal to probability fallacy. Make sure to read all the way to the end so you can take the quiz to test your understanding of the fallacy. 🤓

But before we get into it, I want you to know about a tool that may help you understand this and other fallacies. I know that some people learn better by writing or typing. If that is you, download this FREE digital copy of “#FallacyFridays: The Workbook.” It was designed to follow alongside #FallacyFridays lessons in order for you to better understand logical fallacies.

What is the Appeal to Probability Fallacy?

The appeal to probability fallacy (also known as the appeal to possibility fallacy) occurs when you claim that since something is possible, then it is certainly true or certainly the case.

The appeal to probability fallacy is a flawed way of reasoning; just because something is possibly the case doesn't mean it is definitely the case. Click To Tweet

Examples of the Appeal to Probability Fallacy

Justin is certainly going win the raffle ticket drawing for the new Air Jordan’s. I mean it’s a 50-50 chance for him, but I’m certain he’ll win.

Well, it’s possible you’ll pass that exam, even if you don’t study. That’s gotta mean you’ll be fine even if you don’t study.

Lilly: I’m just not that into you.
Owen: But there’s a chance you might change your mind right?
Lilly: I mean…I guess, bu–
Owen: Then it’s settled! You’re gonna change your mind, baby girl.

(Lilly then proceeds to block Owen. Don’t be like Owen.)

We tend to make the appeal to probability fallacy when we are very emotionally tied to the position we are arguing for. Fallacies tend to hide within our deeply held biases. Click To Tweet

Quiz Time!

Now that you’ve learned about the appeal to probability fallacy, here’s a quiz to test your understanding. Which one of the following answer choices contains the appeal to probability fallacy?

A. It’s possible I won’t like samosas when I try them for the first time. Better avoid for me to avoid them then since that means I’ll definitely not like them.

B. It’s possible samosas are delicious and that you might be missing out by avoiding them.

C. Yael is trying to learn the bass. She thinks there’s a chance she’ll master it since she is committing to practice on a regular basis.

D. Tonya says we’re going to be friends, but I don’t think so. There are things about him that I cannot stand.

Coming Soon

Which answer choice contains the appeal to probability fallacy?

A. It’s possible I won’t like samosas when I try them for the first time. Better avoid for me to avoid them then since that means I’ll definitely not like them.

B. It’s possible samosas are delicious and that you might be missing out by avoiding them.

C. Yael is trying to learn the bass. She thinks there’s a chance she’ll master it since she is committing to practice on a regular basis.

D. Tonya says we’re going to be friends, but I don’t think so. There are things about him that I cannot stand.

Results Vote

Which answer choice contains the appeal to probability fallacy?

A. It’s possible I won’t like samosas when I try them for the first time. Better avoid for me to avoid them then since that means I’ll definitely not like them. 59 ( 78.67 % )

B. It’s possible samosas are delicious and that you might be missing out by avoiding them. 4 ( 5.33 % )

C. Yael is trying to learn the bass. She thinks there’s a chance she’ll master it since she is committing to practice on a regular basis. 8 ( 10.67 % )

D. Tonya says we’re going to be friends, but I don’t think so. There are things about him that I cannot stand. 4 ( 5.33 % )

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